![]() ![]() The company believes its sandwich sales follow a seasonal pattern. Metro Food Vending operates vending machines in office buildings, the airport, bus stations, colleges, and other businesses and agencies around town, and it operates vending trucks for building and construction sites. Which of the two approaches used in (a) and (b) appears to be the more accurate? Use MAD to verify your selection. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past 5 years: Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the Christmas season and during the spring. The Northwoods Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Indicate which forecast seems to be more accurate. ![]() ![]() 20) and a linear trend line model and compare the forecast accuracy of the two by using MAD. It has experienced the following demand for coal during the past 8 years:ĭevelop an adjusted exponential smoothing model ( a =. The Cat Creek Mining Company mines and ships coal. Monaghan's Pizza delivery service has randomly selected 8 weekdays during the past month and recorded orders for pizza at four different time periods per day:ĭevelop a seasonally adjusted forecasting model for daily pizza demand and forecast demand for each of the time periods for a single upcoming day. Then use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for 2006.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be more accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11 or the seasonally adjusted forecast?ĭevelop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer found in Problem 3. Does there appear to be any bias in the forecast?įor the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for 2004. 50 to forecast demand and assess its accuracy using cumulative error ( E ) and average error ( ). They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters:ĭevelop an adjusted exponential smoothing model with a =. The two women who own the cafe want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production operation and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the cafe. People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The Whistle Stop Cafe in Weems, Georgia, is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the cafe. Following are the number of cubic feet of container space the company has used in each of the past 18 months:ĭevelop a forecasting model that you believe would provide the company with relatively accurate forecasts for the next year and indicate the forecasted shipping space required for the next 3 months. This requires an accurate forecasting model. The company has to reserve space on ships months and sometimes years in advance. The parts are transported by truck to Hamburg, where they are shipped overseas to customers in Mexico, South America, the United States, and the Pacific Rim. She has collected the following data on the average price of the fund during the past 20 months:Ĭompare the forecasts in (a), (b), and (c), using MAD, and indicate the most accurate.Įurotronics manufactures components for use in small electronic products such as computers, CD players, and radios at plants in Belgium, Germany, and France. She would like to forecast the price of the science and technology fund for the next month before making a decision. Now she is considering liquidating and investing in another fund. Compare the three forecasts, using MAD and average error ( ), and indicate which seems to be most accurate.Įmily Andrews has invested in a science and technology mutual fund. ![]() 20, an adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a =. The hotel has experienced the following occupancy rates for the past 9 years, since the coliseum opened:Ĭompute an exponential smoothing forecast with a =. The Bayside Fountain Hotel is adjacent to County Coliseum, a 24,000-seat arena that is home to the city's professional basketball and ice hockey teams and that hosts a variety of concerts, trade shows, and conventions throughout the year. Compare the accuracy of the three forecasts, using cumulative error and MAD, and indicate which forecast appears to be most accurate. 40, the adjusted exponential smoothing forecast with a =. The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the past 10 months:Ĭompute the exponentially smoothed forecast with a =. Compare the two forecasts by using MAPD and indicate which seems to be more accurate. ![]()
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